Electoral Math: The Next Five Matches

Article by e-Spurs Correspondent Nathan Durec

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As the table currently stands, Tottenham has 12 matches left to play and sit a mere 3 points out of a Champions League spot and 7 from the top. After the Christmas season, many begin to look at the table and start to play their own versions of football electoral math. How many points to win? To play in Europe? To stave off relegation? Where do my boys fit?

Twelve matches represent a lot of math. It is a possible 36 points. And while no club is likely to grab their entire maximum share, it now becomes a calculation and comparison to others in similar positions in the table.

So let’s explore that. Tottenham has ambitions for a top four spot and given recent form under Sherwood, some of the more carefree pundits have begun to include them in the title race again.

What follows is a quick overview of the next five matches for the clubs that are still feasibly in the race for the top. In this, I have included the top four current clubs — Chelsea, Arsenal, Manchester City, and Liverpool — for obvious reasons. On the outside but increasingly putting pressure on the top four are our Lillywhites and Everton. Manchester United is left out, but that is an argument for another day.

Chelsea

Everton (H)
Fulham (A)
Tottenham (H)
Aston Villa (A)
Arsenal (H)

Chelsea has only recently surged to the top of the table. Ironically, they grabbed it right after Mourinho stated his belief that it was impossible. The next five matches offer Chelsea an interesting challenge. Earlier in the season, Everton gave Mourinho his first loss back in the Premier League. They also tied the Gunners and Spurs.

 The matches against Fulham and Aston Villa will go down in the win column. Fulham can’t buy a win from anyone and Chelsea has the skill to handle Villa. It is the three other matches that will be interesting. Chelsea will have learnt their lesson on Everton. Everton under Martinez was still a relative unknown when they first met. This is no longer the case. As for Arsenal and Tottenham, I have to figure Chelsea will pick up one win from the two. They’ve had Spurs’ number since 2011 and it’s not going to change. Likely a draw with Arsenal. Too much talk between the managers will fizzle out to nothing.

Potential 5 game record: 3W-1D-1L
 
Arsenal

Sunderland (H)
Stoke (A)
Swansea (H)
Tottenham (A)
Chelsea (A)

Wenger has got Arsenal playing very well for the most part. There have been a few cracks showing as of late though with only two wins in the last five. There is blood in the water and others have noticed. I’ve already stated that I see the Chelsea match drawing, so that leaves four others. Sunderland and Stoke are simple blue-collar wins and shouldn’t worry the Gunners. Swansea may scratch out a tie, but with their current record and problems, Arsenal will pick up full points here too.

In the past few years, Tottenham and Arsenal have traded points. In 2011, Spurs won one and tied the other. In 2012 and 2013, the two clubs split wins in each season. I see that happening again. Arsenal won the match back in September, so this time, the win goes to Spurs.

Potential 5 game record: 3W-1D-1L

Manchester City* Includes postponed match for a total of six matches to even out total

Sunderland (H)
Stoke (H)
Aston Villa (H)
Hull (A)
Fulham (H)
Manchester United (A)

Considered the most likely club to finish on top by many. Their postponed match last weekend would have placed them level with Chelsea if they had won. Against Sunderland, they will. In fact, Manchester City faces the easiest set of matches up to and including Week 28. Have to say, they’re my pick to finish on top as well.

 Potential 6 game record: 6W-0D-0L

Liverpool

Swansea (A)
Southampton (A)
Sunderland (H)
Man United (A)
Cardiff (A)

Liverpool is another club that is enjoying a renaissance of sorts. They did suffer from a post-Christmas blip (too many snacks), but found their form again and do not seem to be slowing. However, this is not a simple schedule. Southampton handed Liverpool a loss in September and Swansea and Manchester United tied them.

 Liverpool will want revenge for the home turf loss against Southampton, so expect a solid win. Same goes for Sunderland and Cardiff. Under interim coach Garry Monk, Swansea has stemmed the flow, but holding out for a draw is probably all they can hope for. Arsenal does have to travel for this match, so I go for the draw. Against Manchester United, there is no way Moyes could live down a home loss to Liverpool. He will sell his first born rather than lose this match.

Potential 5 game record: 3W-1D-1L

Tottenham

Norwich (A)
Cardiff (H)
Chelsea (A)
Arsenal (H)
Southampton (H)

On to our boys. Sherwood has changed the dressing room mentality, players are returning from injuries, and there is a positive atmosphere. Spurs should do well against Norwich and Cardiff. Southampton did place some pressure in their first meeting this season, but with the match at White Hart Lane, this should be another win. I’ve already given Spurs the win against Arsenal based on previous history. Unfortunately, Chelsea will likely hand the boys their only dark stain.

Potential 5 game record: 4W-0D-1L

Everton* Includes postponed match for a total of six matches to even out totals.

Crystal Palace (H)
Chelsea (A)
West Ham United (H)
Newcastle (A)
Cardiff (H)
Swansea (H)

It was Cardiff and Crystal Palace that gave Everton problems in their first meetings this season. Both ended in scoreless draws. However, with home advantage in both of these rematches, Everton should win both. They won’t be so lucky against Chelsea though.

West Ham has seen a recent change in form since the end of January. Three wins in four and all with clean sheets makes them a difficult competitor. Everton should grab a point from this though, possibly more. Newcastle was a home win earlier in the season. Expect them to switch positions this time.

Will Swansea have levelled the ship by the time they come to Goodison Park? Their first meeting this season was an Everton win, but based on the number of ties this season, may as well add on another.

Potential 6 game record: 2W-2D-2L

The Final Stretch

The conclusion of these next matches will put us within striking distance of the end. A potential table, based on this completely unscientific, one-man study has a new table as such.

Manchester City 72 points
Chelsea 67 points
Arsenal 66 points
Liverpool 63 points
Tottenham 62 points
Everton 53 points

Manchester City goes back on top, but that shouldn’t be a surprise. No changes in position for Tottenham, but they will have created a gap between them and Everton. That ever-elusive fourth spot is still to remain so after five matches, but the gap should hopefully close.

So, thank you for indulging a late night pondering from pure speculation with a dash of invention. By the end of Week 28, I’ll either be a prophet … or like all the others who write such articles.

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