Article by Michael Halepas9 games in to the season seems an appropriate point at which to have a glance at the league table. Just short of the quarter mark and every team has played 9 games. The 2013/14 season still has three quarters left to run and league positions will inevitably change between now and May.
It goes without saying that the further into a league season we go, the more amplified a team’s weaknesses and strengths become to onlookers. Whereas Spurs’ lack of bite in the attacking third would have been a worry to some at the start of the season, it’s now acknowledged more widely by the masses who only have to look at the league table which highlights the team’s more immediate shortcomings.
Of course, the most important number in a league table is that recorded under ‘Points’ – no other column has more bearing on the outcome of the season. Obvious stuff.
The next most important column is goal difference. What we have to accept at some stage is that goals and goal difference are equivalent to a point in such a tight and toughly contested league. If Spurs are one league point behind Arsenal but 20 goals behind in the scoring charts then they’re really as good as 2 points behind Arsenal. This is something the club has had to learn the hard way in recent seasons.
Goals are very important. Until league points are awarded for clean sheets, corners etc goals will remain so. No point labouring on about the lack of goals scored in the last several seasons, best to look at the current season.
After 9 league games in the 2013/14 season Spurs have 19 points chalked up. That’s an average of 2.1 points per game and if that remains the case until the final whistle blows in match 38 then Tottenham will finish in one of the top four positions with around 80 points for their efforts. That is a decent haul for a team chasing a top four finish but we all know that will be an extremely tough task this season.
A look over at the ‘goals for’ column shows that Tottenham have scored 9 goals thus far. This prediction will not come as a revelation to any reader - no team will win any domestic league anywhere in the world this season with an average of 1 goal scored per game. Common sense dictates that.
Spurs have 6 wins from those 9 league games. Not a bad number. Should that trend continue then Spurs would finish the season with around the 24-26 league win mark. Year on year that level of win % is title winning stuff. Again however, only the naive would expect the league forecast to be so straightforward.
Looking more closely at those 6 wins we know that 50% of them – wins against Crystal Palace (20th), Hull (10th) and Swansea (9th) came via single goals scored from the penalty spot. Two of those at least are games that Spurs would not have expected to have required penalties to decide. Aside from the fact that goal difference increases only minimally with 1-0 wins, there is the glaringly clear problem which is a distinct lack of goals. Do we expect an average of 1 goal scored per game to be enough to secure all three points when we trot off to Old Trafford, The Etihad, Stamford Bridge, Anfield or Goodison Park?
Before the penalty against Hull and the two goals against Aston Villa, Spurs had 6 league goals on the board. At that stage of the season, you would have to have gone as far down in the league as 16th position, in other words, just outside the relegation zone – to find a team which had scored fewer goals.
Looking at the game against Hull – we got three points. We enjoyed 66% possession in that game and have been dominating possession in most of the games we have played this season. Teams generally set up more defensively against us this season which was to be expected. Keeping the ball for longer periods of time than the opposition is always to be aimed for but then again no points are awarded for passes completed between centre-halves. Possession alone does not therefore tell the story of a match.
In that match against Hull there were a total of 25 shots. Given respective league positions, ambitions and possession you might have expected Spurs to have enjoyed the vast majority of those shots at goal and to have limited Hull’s goal scoring chances. In reality Hull had 10 shots to Spurs’ 15. What if Hull had had a 1 in 10 shots:goals conversion rate on the day? We’d be talking about a draw rather than a win. Points lost in a game you’d expect to win.
On the defensive side of the game Spurs look good so far. Major concerns about full-back positions have largely subsided for now. Hugo Loris has shown that he is one of the league’s top performing goalkeepers so far. Aside from the more in depth goalkeeping stats this team has conceded only 5 goals in the same 9 games. Without question Spurs have a tighter defence than the fans have come to be used to at WHL and for now that is something to be applauded.
Let’s imagine Spurs are not awarded another penalty for the rest of the season. This far into the season there is a legitimate question which can be asked: Where are the goals going to come from?
COYS!
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Nope, the most important number in the league table is not points, it's position!
ReplyDeleteYou don't hit the nail on its head exactly. The points we have so far, have to be looked at in the proper context:
ReplyDeletea) Spurs have gained those points against LOWER-TABLE teams
b) Winning 1-0(most of them) is just not good enough - the games could have gone differently, such as Cardiff(late, late goal); Hull game, inexistent penalty, etc.
c) The big teams - not as you asserted - did NOT play defensively against Spurs. In fact, Arsenal OUTPLAYED us; Chelsea overran us in 2nd half and would have probably won if Torres was not sent off.
d) We play boring football.
So, the future does look bleak for Spurs. I really don't have any confidence that, come the hard games, we come out of them unscathed.