"Crystal Ball James” Predicts Spurs Premier Finish

Spurs With A Side of Barbecue, Part 6

A few thoughts, some of them random:

It goes without saying that this win was huge. That was just an absolutely smashing performance from the lads to make the victory happen. Strangely enough, we pulled that match back in almost the exact same fashion that City did to beat us at the Etihad in November- with a whole slew of impact subs. This time, it was Holtby, Huddlestone and Defoe playing our versions of Maicon, Dzeko, and Javi Garcia. That Mancini looked helpless on the touchline watching AVB beat him at his own game was absolutely hilarious to me. For the pundits, this should serve as proof that City will never reach their full potential with Mancini at the helm (as if they don’t already have enough evidence to work with!).

Mancini Feeling the Strain

I could say more, but I don’t think there is much more to be said than what you all will have already read from The Guardian and the BBC and Sky Sports and (if you are that desperate) The Daily Mail- we were super-narrow in the first half, looked like complete crap, were lucky to only be down 0-1, then got our subs on and began to space the pitch out. When we hit full time, we had obliterated City clear out of The Lane and off their perch as Champions of England (probably). It’s not official, but seriously, who actually believes Villa can get points at Old Trafford? 

No, what I think is more prudent to do is to look ahead. Because at the heart of this run of matches to come is one question:

What do we need to do in order to reach the Champions League?

And over the course of this article, I am going to try and answer that in detail, going over every match that matters in the hunt for the Champions League places.

James’ Chase for the Champions League- An Analysis

To start, I want to look at the remaining fixtures for the three contenders: Woolwich, C$KA London, and Tottenham. They are:

Arsenal

v Man Utd (H) Sun 28 April 4pm

v QPR (A) Sat 4 May 5.30pm

v Wigan (H) Tue 14 May 7.45pm

v Newcastle (A) Sun 19 May 4pm

Chelsea

v Swansea (H) Sun 28 April 3pm

v Man Utd (A) Sun 5 May 4pm

v Tottenham (H) Wed 8 May 7.45pm

v Aston Villa (A) Sat 11 May 12.45pm

v Everton (H) Sun 19 May 4pm

Tottenham

v Wigan (A) Sat 27 April 3pm

v Southampton (H) Sat 4 May 3pm

v Chelsea (A) Wed 8 May 7.45pm

v Stoke (A) Sun 12 May 1.30pm

v Sunderland (H) Sun 19 May 4pm

That Club-That-Shall-Not-Be-Named

I think it’s safe to say that the Gooners have the easiest run to the end of the season- yes, they get Man United at the Emirates, but I don’t see many problems for them in the other three fixtures. QPR and Wigan should be a breeze, and the only way that the Newcastle fixture turns into trouble is if the Magpies suddenly decide to collapse in the next few weeks and leave their Prem status hanging in the balance come May 19. Otherwise, Arsenal will be in for a solid 9 points at a minimum.

 

 

That being said, the Man United game still looms large. Yes, United should have title #20 in the bag by then, but do you really think that Fergie is going to let his men slow up in a match as big as this one? I don’t. Man United make a habit of winning more games that they are supposed to win than any other club, and I don’t see this game being an exception. I think they defeat Arsenal at the Emirates.

However, I think the other 9 points that the Gunners should grab will be enough to secure a top-4 spot, even if they do lose to Man U. As much as I hate to do it, I’ll say Arsenal go through to the 2013-2014 Champions League.

Team Abramovich

Likewise, Chelsea have the most difficult run-in to close the season out. With today’s result, I think everyone will see what I have seen coming for a while- that the Blues will have a challenge on their hands to remain in the top-4, and that it is by no means an assured result. While we’re at it, let’s take some time to do something that we almost never get the chance to do as Yids and thank Luis Suarez for his efforts today. He might cheat, dive (or, in this case, bite), and hate the Jackson 5…but he may have just given a humongous boost to our hopes of making the Champions League. I see no issues with Swansea and Aston Villa, but the other three matches could very easily lead to dropped points.

 

 

Even with the title locked up, I have a feeling that Man U will want to show up for this one. It is Chelsea after all- the Red Devils will always take delight in taking points off of Chelsea, regardless of the circumstances. And Everton might be out of the CL race by then, but they will still want to show up at Stamford Bridge- David Moyes is not one to let his team go out of the season on a low note. They will fight until the end. And that plucky, pesky spirit that has carried the Toffees this far could lead to a few points from Stamford Bridge. It’s certainly not out of the question.

And then us…

The win against Manchester City gave us maximum points from one of the two tough matches left on the schedule. For me, those tough matches constitute one of the three categories that I think the rest of our season falls under. The next game, at the DW, has all the makings of a trap game. We have had the unfortunate pleasure of drawing Wigan when Wigan like to pull rabbits and all sorts of other-worldly things out of their hat to stay up. Truth be told, it looks like that run has yet to start given their recent run of form, but Wigan are the kind of team that can sneak up and bite you if you aren’t careful. Last year, they took 3 points off of Newcastle, Arsenal, and Man U in the late stages of the season to stay up. That match should play out one of two ways- we either thrash them early and never have to worry about them, or they put everything into this match trying to stay in the Prem and drag us out to a lackluster draw/ loss that will haunt all of our nightmares. That’s what I’m afraid of. I want to say that this should be 3 points, but I’m not 100% sure. We get out of that match and then host Southampton. The Saints have been a “trap team” at St. Mary’s, but on the road they haven’t been near as effective. I would hope that we take all three points from that- it would make for a very nice present on my birthday!

 

 

Which leads us to the match at Stamford Bridge. If anything, our victory against Man City took the pressure off of us to get a result in this match. And truth be told, I don’t think that this match will be near as important as people will make it out to be. Yes, a loss here won’t help, but it won’t completely kill us. And we did take a point off of Chelsea at Stamford Bridge last season, so it’s not like we aren’t capable of getting a result (provided everyone is available, of course). I wouldn’t say that we’re going to march in there and get our first win at Stamford Bridge since 1990, but I don’t think a draw would be out of the question. I think we all would happily take that.

And then…Stoke. Stoke. Stoke.

This is the match that absolutely terrifies me. If Wigan is a “trap” game, then this is a TRAP game. This game has all the makings of being this season’s equivalent of our trip to Villa last year. We all know of the way Stoke play, and of the whole “Fortress Britannia” legend. That should all apply when we visit them, along with an added pressure not seen in years past- that of Stoke fighting to avoid the drop. We should also not forget that we haven’t won at the Britannia in nearly three years. All of that combined spells out a recipe for disaster to me. And that isn’t a good thing in a game that we will want a win from (and NEED a win from if we don’t defeat Chelsea). In my mind, the match away to Chelsea isn’t the most important one remaining. Instead, it’s this one. We win this match, we are in very good shape for a CL spot. Anything less, and we will likely need help to reach the Champions League.

Then to the final match, home to Sunderland. The circumstances surrounding this match will largely be determined over the next few weeks, depending on how our chase for a Champions League place and Sunderland’s fight to avoid the relegation battle go. We might be out of the top-4 race altogether, or we might be a single win away from Champions League competition. Likewise, Sunderland might need points (or even a win, perhaps) to avoid the Championship, or have taken care of business against Aston Villa, Stoke, and Southampton to secure their Premier League status. Combinations of those 4 scenarios are out on the table as of now. Regardless, I think we will still need a win here to secure the top-4 finish. The real question is whether or not we want to face a Sunderland side that is already safe (and on a small run of form) or one that will be right in the heart of the relegation battle (in which case we can start drawing comparisons to our match home to Birmingham City at the end of 2010-2011). I’m still not decided on to which Sunderland side I would rather see come to the Lane.

If you want to have a go at how you think this season will wind up, I would recommend that you visit the BBC’s Premier League Predictor- a link is below:

http://bbc.in/10skKEg

I have already filled out my predictions for the rest of the season using this predictor, and have the top-4 winding up as such:

1. Manchester United- 96 points
2. Manchester City- 83 points
3. Tottenham Hotspur- 74 points
4. Chelsea- 72 points (going through to the CL on the second tiebreaker, with 78 goals scored!)
5. Arsenal- 72 points (with 74 goals scored and a GD of 35)
6. Everton- 63 points
7. Liverpool- 61 points
8. West Brom- 50 points
9. West Ham- 48 points
10. Swansea City- 46 points
11. Sunderland- 44 points (-7 GD)
12. Southampton- 44 points (-9 GD)
13. Fulham- 44 points (-10 GD)
14. Norwich City- 41 points
15. Newcastle- 40 points
16. Stoke City- 38 points
17. Aston Villa- 36 points
18. Wigan Athletic- 32 points
19. Reading- 25 points
20. QPR- 25 points

So, at the end of the day, what does all of this predicting, and all of these numbers, mean to us Spurs fans? What do we need to do in order to reach the Champions League? I think that the answer is this:

We need at least four wins from our final five matches, and can afford one draw.

We do that, and we should regain our spot amongst the elite of Europe next season. I hope it all works out!

 

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